{mp3}bandbazi-bar-partgah{/mp3}
بهمن شفیق
13 اسفند 1400
4 مارس 2022
برخی منابع مورد استفاده:
Azerbaijan
https://www.commonspace.eu/opinion/opinion-why-non-aligned-azerbaijan-signed-alliance-declaration-russia
The main body of the declaration suggests that Azerbaijan does not take any additional or significant obligations as an ally but reassures Russia of Baku's friendly attitude toward Russia . The new document is likely calculated to ensure a distance in Azerbaijan’s engagement with the West.
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/02/turkey-azerbaijan-step-aid-ukraine
https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance
The signing of the declaration “brings our relations to the level of an alliance,” Aliyev said after the signing in Moscow.
As per point 25, Azerbaijan and Russia agree to “refrain from carrying out any economic activity that causes direct or indirect damage to the interests of the other Party. Azerbaijani officials have promoted the idea that gas from their fields in the Caspian Sea could act as a replacement for Europe should Russia cut off its own energy exports as a consequence of the Ukraine conflict.
https://azertag.az/en/xeber/Declaration_on_allied_interaction_between_the_Republic_of_Azerbaijan_and_the_Russian_Federation-2024876
7. The Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan refrain from any actions that, in the opinion of one of the Parties, damage the strategic partnership and allied relations of the two states. To this end, they are establishing a permanent mechanism of consultations through the ministries of foreign affairs of the two countries.
Turkey
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/03/turkeys-black-sea-warning-may-impact-syria-more-ukraine
https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/turkey-s-policy-in-central-asia-are-ambitions-well-founded/
https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Tuerkei-Lost-in-der-Ukraine-Krise-6529398.html
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220303-turkey-balancing-russia-ties-says-drones-to-ukraine-are-sales-not-aid-sabah/
https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/bayraktar-uavs-purchased-by-ukraine-not-aid-from-turkey-deputy-fm
3.3.22
Bayraktar UAVs purchased by Ukraine, not aid from Turkey: Deputy FM
Maintaining its neutral and balanced stance, Turkey continues its diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the Ukraine conflict, urging all sides for restraint. While Ankara has opposed international sanctions aiming to isolate Moscow, it also closed the Bosporus and Dardanelles under a 1936 pact, allowing it to curb some Russian vessels from crossing the Turkish Straits.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/erdogan-und-der-ukraine-krieg-das-ende-einer-tuerkischen-illusion/28102134.html
Putin hat Erdogans Ambitionen, im Konzert der Großen mitzuspielen, für seine Zwecke genutzt. Der türkische Präsident machte sein Land von Moskau abhängig, weil er es dem Westen zeigen wollte. Wie groß diese Abhängigkeit ist, zeigt sich jetzt deutlich. Die Hälfte der türkischen Erdgas-Importe, 40 Prozent der Öleinfuhren und 75 Prozent der Weizen-Importe kommen aus Russland.
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/03/turkeys-black-sea-warning-may-impact-syria-more-ukraine
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/02/one-eye-russia-turkey-expresses-support-ukraine
“There’s talk of Turkey striking a balance between the West and Russia but Turkey is clearly and openly supporting Ukraine, and Ukraine seems satisfied with what Turkey has been doing,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of German Marshall Fund in Ankara. He told Al-Monitor, “Everyone sees what the Turkish drones are doing to Russia. Everyone questioned if they would be useful in a real battle and they have been.”
Russian trade with Turkey stood at $34.7 billion in 2021. Russia is also a major importer of wheat and other grains to Turkey as well as sending 4.7 million tourists last year.
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/02/turkeys-economy-11-growth-brings-risk
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-the-biggest-winner-in-ukraine-so-far-turkey-s-erdogan-1.10645588
But the longer the Russian and Ukrainian conflict persists, the harder it will be for Turkey to continue on the third path it has chosen. If Erdogan is successful at maintaining this fragile strategic balance, the economic pains of his current crisis at home will at least be alleviated, while paving his way back to the US and EU, without playing too hard on his relations with Putin.
https://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/517840/Affront-gegen-Nato-Tuerkei-setzt-im-Ukraine-Krieg-auf-Neutralitaet
SitRep
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569141/Putin-NOT-crazy-Russian-invasion-NOT-failing-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html
Sympathy for the outnumbered and outgunned defenders of Kyiv has led to the exaggeration of Russian setbacks, misunderstanding of Russian strategy, and even baseless claims from amateur psychoanalysts that Putin has lost his mind.
A more sober analysis shows that Russia may have sought a knockout blow, but always had well-laid plans for follow-on assaults if its initial moves proved insufficient.
The world has underestimated Putin before and those mistakes have led, in part, to this tragedy in Ukraine.
Once again, U.S. and Western officials are falling into the trap of failing to understand the enemy and his objectives.
If Russian forces can take Kyiv and push southward to link up with forces on the Crimean front, thus splitting Ukraine in two, it would be a major blow to the Zelensky government.
What matters more than a handful of setbacks is that Russian forces have pushed 70 miles into contested terrain in less than a week and are on the outskirts of the capital.
https://www.zeit.de/arbeit/2022-03/russland-ukraine-krieg-sanktionen-atomwaffen-deeskalation
Iran
http://thesaker.is/ukrainian-crisis-through-the-prism-of-the-islamic-republic-of-iran-from-birth-pangs-of-a-new-middle-east-to-a-c-section-of-a-new-europe/
مقاله ریا نووستی و اسم نبردن از ایران
Tangible and measurable regional geopolitical shifts supported by facts on the ground are now slapping nations right, left, and center into choosing one of three options: 1) Both legs in Western boat; 2) Both legs in an Eastern boat; 3) Both legs in one’s own independent boat. Being motivated by either fear or greed and having a leg in one boat and the other in another, especially when the boats are each moving different directions, is a hazardous for one’s national health. Ouch. It is no longer an option.
Last week, Vadym Prystaiko, the Ukrainian Ambassador to England, had this to say in a video interview (see here) part of which I transcribed as follows:
“We had two times more nuclear than France, Great Britain, and China together. Now, we exchanged it for the promise to come to help. And there is just not that this help is not coming but one of those who signed this agreement, Russia, now it is threatening us. This is a great lesson for us but also a great lesson for nations who are threshold nations like North Korea and Iran, who are trying to defend themselves building their nuclear shield. Europeans, Westerns trying to tell them, ‘Guys, let’s not do it. Let’s denuclearize in exchange we will defend you, protect you. Sign some agreement.’ How would these nations look at this?”
In great act of defiance and to show his solid revolutionary resolve and iron will, the brave Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky unfollowed world leaders on Twitter. He showed them.
https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1346643/پایان-تحقیر-روسیه-و-سخن-با-حنجره-شوروی-تصویر-آمریکا-در-ذهن-پوتین
https://farsi.khamenei.ir/speech-content?id=49680
امروز به نظر من، اوکراین هم قربانی همین سیاست است. امروز قضایای اوکراین هم مربوط به همین سیاست آمریکا است. آمریکا اوکراین را به این نقطه کشاند؛ با ورود در مسائل داخلی آن کشور، راه انداختن اجتماعات علیه دولتها، حرکت مخملی به وجود آوردن، کودتای رنگی درست کردن، حضور سناتورهای آمریکایی در داخل اجتماعات معارضه، این دولت را برداشتن، آن دولت را گذاشتن؛ اینها طبعاً به همین جاها منتهی میشود.
البتّه ما با جنگ و تخریب در هر جای دنیا مخالفیم؛ این حرف ثابت ما است. ما با کشته شدن مردم، با تخریب زیربناهای ملّتها [مخالفیم]؛ ما اینها را هر جای دنیا اتّفاق بیفتد تأیید نمیکنیم؛ این حرف ثابت ما است. ما مثل غربیها نیستیم که اگر چنانچه بمبی را روی سر کاروان عروسی در افغانستان بریزند و عروسیشان را تبدیل به عزا بکنند، [بگوییم که] این مبارزهی با تروریسم است؛ این جنایت نیست؛ آنها منطقشان این جوری است دیگر؛ در افغانستان، در عراق. آمریکا در شرق سوریه چه کار میکند؟ چرا نفت سوریه را میدزدند؟ چرا پول افغانستان را میدزدند؟ ثروت ملّی افغانستان را چرا غصب میکنند؟ چرا در منطقهی غرب آسیا از جنایات صهیونیستها که شبانهروز این جنایات دارد انجام میگیرد دفاع میکنند؟ اینها بحرانسازی است؛ اینها کارهایی است که میکنند و همهی اینها را به اسم دفاع از حقوق بشر و امثال اینها دارند انجام میدهند!
خب حالا که صحبت اوکراین مطرح شد، عبرتهایی هم در این قضیّهی اوکراین وجود دارد که انسان مشاهده میکند و در گفتار گویندگان و نویسندگان به بعضی از این عبرتها اشاره شده. من دو مورد از این عبرتها را مطرح میکنم. یکی این است که پشتیبانی قدرتهای غربی از کشورها و دولتهایی که دستنشاندهی آنها هستند، یک سراب است، واقعیّت ندارد؛ این را همهی دولتها بدانند. آن دولتهایی که پشتگرمیشان به آمریکا و به اروپا است، ببینند وضع امروز اوکراین و دیروز افغانستان را. هم رئیسجمهور اوکراین همین چند روز پیش گفت، هم رئیسجمهور فراری افغانستان چندی قبل گفت؛ گفت ما اعتماد کردیم به آمریکا، اعتماد کردیم به دولتهای غربی، [ولی] ما را تنها گذاشتند. به اینها نمیشود اعتماد کرد؛ این عبرت اوّل. حالا جمهوری اسلامی که صلای(۱۰) استقلال و عزّتش دنیا را فرا گرفته، امّا آن کسانی که متّکی به آمریکا هستند، از این عبرت درس بگیرند و این را بفهمند.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvh-QC1LILw&t=1588s
دلبری جمهوری اسلامی
https://www.magiran.com/article/4275703
نه شرقی نه غربی اعتماد
https://nournews.ir/Fa/News/89889/رمزگشایی-از-گره%E2%80%8Cهایی-که-مذاکرات-وین-را-طولانی-کرده-است
تداوم تحریم برخی نهادهایی که محدودیت آنها زیر برچسبهای دیگر به صورت مستقیم و غیر مستقیم، کشور را در خصوص بهرهمندی از منافع اقتصادی برجام با مشکلات جدی روبرو میکند از جمله موارد دیگری است که آمریکا حاضر به عقبنشینی از آن نشده و ایران هم متقابلا بر ضرورت حذف آنها تاکید دارد.
http://analitik.de/2022/02/26/krieg-geht-weiter/
https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1347525/نیروگاه-اتمی-زاپروژیا-به-تصرف-ارتش-روسیه-درآمد-ناتو-قصد-دخالت
UN Vote
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/un-vote-signals-trouble-washington’s-global-coalition-against-russia-200954
Not only did India maintain its neutrality but it also brought along Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in its wake. Moreover, New Delhi’s longtime adversary—and Washington’s treaty ally—Pakistan joined the ranks of countries casting abstentions.
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/ukraine-krieg-warum-russland-verbuendete-in-afrika-hat-17848689.html